# Partial Florida investment-market screen • 3 October 2026

## Prominent limitation
This is a reproducible **research-priority screen**, not a 100-point investment ranking, projected return, valuation or recommendation to buy. It identifies markets for property-level underwriting. SFR means Zillow's full single-family rental category, not verified 3–5-bedroom rent. MFR means **5+ rental units**, not duplex/triplex/fourplex income. Neither category establishes achievable rent for a specific listing.

Only **55 of the requested 100 points** normally have comparable-enough numeric inputs. Current, asset-type-specific vacancy (5), property yield/debt fit (25), and property insurance/risk (15) remain **unscored**, never assigned neutral values. Pensacola, Sebastian–Vero Beach and Sebring MFR each have only **50 points covered**, because prior-year 5+ permits are zero and percent change is undefined. A lower/upper score range is the known sum to the known sum plus all missing possible points. The range is a missing-data envelope, **not a statistical confidence interval**. Do not rank by the upper bound or normalize observed points to 100.

All thresholds below are explicit **analyst judgment**, not thresholds published or endorsed by these data providers, and have not been backtested. Source links support measured inputs, not the investment model. Weights come from the report assignment. All sums are reproducible in the archived component data; source-to-component values are in the archived partial-score CSV.

## Data and allocation

- Demand, 15: type-specific Zillow August 2026 YoY rent growth, 10; BLS August 2026 YoY nonfarm payroll growth, 5
- Buyer leverage, 15: Realtor.com September 2026 monthly price-reduction share, 7.5; pending/active listing stock ratio, 7.5
- Supply/vacancy, 15: Census Jan–Aug 2026 permits per 1,000 July 2025 residents for the relevant unit category, 5; same-period permit YoY change, 5; matching current type-specific vacancy, 5 (missing)
- Employment/household-growth context, 10: Census July 2024–July 2025 population growth, 5; BLS August 2026 unemployment rate, 5. Population is an explicitly labelled proxy for household-demand growth; **household-growth observations are missing**
- Liquidity, 5: Realtor.com September 2026 median listing days on market
- Yield/debt, 25: no market-wide points assigned; requires purchase price, achievable property rents, fully loaded expenses and proposed debt
- Insurance/property risk, 15: no points assigned by this research; requires property-level insurance/physical/regulatory diligence

## Exact thresholds

Percent variables are in percentage units, not fractions. Intervals listed from best to worst. The code treats ties exactly as listed.

### Demand
Rent YoY / 10: ≥3%=10; [2,3)=8; [1,2)=6; [0,1)=4; [-3,0)=2; <-3=0.

Payroll YoY / 5: ≥2%=5; [1,2)=4; [0.5,1)=3; (0,0.5)=2; (-1,0]=1; ≤-1=0.

### Buyer leverage
Monthly cut share / 7.5: ≥30%=7.5; [25,30)=6; [20,25)=4.5; [15,20)=3; [10,15)=1.5; <10=0.

Pending/active stock ratio / 7.5: <0.20=7.5; [0.20,0.35)=6; [0.35,0.50)=4.5; [0.50,0.75)=3; [0.75,1)=1.5; ≥1=0.

Use the **provider-supplied** monthly price-reduced share. It is not the count of reductions divided by the provider's snapshot active-listing count; it is also not the cumulative share ever reduced during a listing's life. Exact monthly share denominator mechanics are not specified by the downloaded CSV dictionary, so no inferred count denominator is substituted.

### Supply
SFR: Jan–Aug one-unit permits per 1,000 population / 5: ≤1=5; (1,2]=4; (2,4]=3; (4,6]=2; (6,8]=1; >8=0.

MFR: Jan–Aug 5+ structure units permitted per 1,000 population / 5: ≤0.25=5; (0.25,0.50]=4; (0.50,1]=3; (1,2]=2; (2,3]=1; >3=0.

Relevant-unit permit YoY / 5: ≤-30%=5; (-30,-15]=4; (-15,0]=3; (0,15]=2; (15,30]=1; >30=0. When previous-year permits=0, score is missing. Counts are units authorized, **not buildings, starts, completions, deliveries, or a forward pipeline**. Shrinking permits can mean less incoming competition or weak development demand; it is only one supply indicator. Population normalization is not stock normalization and is especially imperfect in second-home/retirement markets.

Vacancy / 5: unscored in this version. A prospective matched current series would use ≤4%=5; (4,6]=4; (6,8]=3; (8,10]=2; (10,12]=1; >12=0. Six available Census HVS observations are all-rental, dated 2025, with geography and sampling caveats, and are context only.

### Growth context
Population growth / 5: ≥2%=5; [1.5,2)=4; [1,1.5)=3; [0.5,1)=2; (0,0.5)=1; ≤0=0.

Unemployment / 5: ≤3%=5; (3,4]=4; (4,5]=3; (5,6]=2; (6,7]=1; >7=0.

### Liquidity
Days on market / 5: ≤30=5; (30,45]=4; (45,60]=3; (60,75]=2; (75,90]=1; >90=0. This is listing time until closing/removal under the provider's definition, not days to first contract, and is an all-residential-resale proxy.

## Rank and sensitivity
Order by earned points on the observed 55-point common base. Ties: higher liquidity, then higher demand, then alphabetic MSA name. Do not interpret a one-point difference as meaningful precision. Pensacola, Sebastian–Vero Beach and Sebring MFR have different coverage and are unranked, shown separately from the comparable 55-point markets.

Payroll growth and unemployment are correlated; rent growth and population can also covary. Buyer-leverage points deliberately favor weaker seller conditions while demand/liquidity can penalize the same market's slowness. Different factors represent different investor tradeoffs, not additive independent causal evidence. No duplicate source metrics are counted twice; residual covariance still limits interpretation.

## Sources

1. [Zillow data and definitions](https://www.zillow.com/research/data/) and [SFR ZORI CSV](https://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public_csvs/zori/Metro_zori_uc_sfr_sm_month.csv), [MFR ZORI CSV](https://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public_csvs/zori/Metro_zori_uc_mfr_sm_month.csv), latest Aug 2026, modified Sep 16
2. [BLS August 2026 metro release](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/metro.htm), payroll jobs and labor-force unemployment are distinct denominators; not seasonally adjusted, August preliminary
3. [Realtor.com September report](https://www.realtor.com/research/september-2026-data/), published Sep 30, and [CSV](https://econdata.s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com/Reports/Core/RDC_Inventory_Core_Metrics_Metro.csv); provider dictionary [here](https://www.realtor.com/research/data/)
4. [Census BPS current files](https://www2.census.gov/econ/bps/CBSA%20%28beginning%20Jan%202024%29/): Jan–Aug 2026 `cbsa2608y.txt` (Sep 24) and Jan–Aug 2025 `cbsa2508y.txt` (Sep 24, 2025)
5. [Census Vintage 2025 population](https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-total-metro-and-micro-statistical-areas.html), released March 2026, population reference July 1

## Geographic integrity
Primary row spine is the 22 current Census MSAs identified by CBSA. All counties are preserved in the evidence file. Realtor.com uses 2023 OMB definitions; Census/BPS/BLS current named areas align to this spine. Zillow uses its provider metro names; **its boundary vintage is not verified here**, so mapping by name is disclosed, not treated as proof of identical boundaries. Florida Realtors sale summaries use 2013 definitions and stay source-labelled; materially different Gainesville (excludes Levy) and Panama City (Bay+Gulf instead of Bay+Washington) are prominently flagged. Miami is the three-county MSA; its BLS divisions are in a separate file and are not substituted for the metro.
