Executive summary
WATCH statewide. No acquisition is cleared to buy. This October 15, 2026 first monthly report updates the October 3 statewide baseline across all 22 current Florida metros. Higher debt costs and reduced shortlist availability matter more than unchanged monthly market files. Complete investment rankings and best-property awards remain unassigned because legal-use, rent, vacancy and address-specific cost evidence is incomplete.
↑ Debt burden: Freddie Mac October 8 conforming 30-year benchmark 7.40%, up 0.12 percentage point from October 1. The investor model now assumes 8.75% fixed, 75% LTV and 30-year amortization, versus 8.50% in the baseline; 9.75% is a sensitivity, not a quote. All five current SFR test cases fail the 1.25× after-reserve DSCR hurdle at asking price. No appreciation, refinancing or rent growth is needed or credited.
→ Comparable market snapshots: September Realtor.com residential listings and August Zillow SFR/5+unit asking-rent CSVs re-retrieved unchanged. Florida Realtors September/Q3 closed-sales release is scheduled October 16; September metro BLS labor data October 28. Do not claim missing September observations. The Zillow September national report exists, but the specific downloaded type-specific CSVs end in August.
↓ Active opportunities: 1403 College Park Lane and 134 W 32nd Street triplex listings were removed October 8 and October 5. SFRs on Magellan, NW 48th and Angle are contingent/pending; Simpson has a contingent/old-active conflict; Galveston now shows off market. Five portal-active SFR leads remain in this report after adding three Ocala screens; they are diligence leads, not a best-buy award.
Purchase gate: after-reserve DSCR ≥1.25×, collected-rent break-even occupancy ≤85% (80% preferred), and ≥1.00× coverage with rent 5% lower plus operating expenses five percentage points higher. Deduct immediate repairs, acquisition expenses and unresolved recurring costs from conditional income ceilings. Permission for room rental, ADU, subdivision, furnished or short-term use is not verified, so each earns zero incremental credit.
Evidence labels and data calendar
Observed means a dated public-source value or visible portal status. Listing claim means seller/MLS text, not an executed lease or inspection. Derived means arithmetic. Modeled means analyst assumptions. Unverified/N/A means missing, never zero. Market figures are metro unless labeled statewide or county; municipality rules do not extend to an entire metro. Zillow boundary vintage is not verified. Florida Realtors 2013 MSA definitions differ from current Gainesville and Panama City components; preserve the baseline geography caveats.
| Input | Vintage / scope | Treatment |
|---|---|---|
| Realtor.com CSVs | September 2026, residential mix; retrieved Oct 15 | Same snapshot as Oct 3; not legal small-MF counts |
| Zillow type-specific CSVs | August 31, 2026; provider metro | SFR index is not 3–5BR comparable rent; MFR is 5+ units |
| Florida Realtors closed sales | August 2026; 2013 MSA definitions | September/Q3 release scheduled Oct 16 |
| BLS metro jobs / unemployment | August 2026, NSA preliminary; release Sep 30 | September metro release scheduled Oct 28 |
| Census permits | Jan–Aug 2026 authorizations | Permits are not deliveries or construction underway |
| Census population | July 2025 estimates vs July 2024 | Population is not household growth |
| ACS 2025 households | Not yet released | Oct 13 announcement schedules Oct 29 release |
| HUD FMR | FY2027 effective Oct 1 | Gross-rent program benchmark, not subject rent |
| OIR county premiums | July 1, 2026 report / March 31 data | Historical homeowner averages, not landlord quotes |
| ATTOM | August 2026 retained baseline | September detail unavailable; metro distress not imputed |
Statewide conditions
September Realtor.com Florida: 146,478 active residential listings (−9.55% YoY), $409,950 median ask (−3.54%), $249/sf (−3.78%), 81 median days and 20.14% monthly reduced share. August Florida Realtors closed SFR median $415,000 (+1.2%), 4.3 months supply, 96.0% original list received and 44 median days to contract. The asking and closing series are distinct. The state includes nonmetro areas; do not sum metro medians. August ATTOM baseline: one housing unit with a filing per 2,397 and 3,189 starts; filings are not unique bargain listings. No newer ATTOM measure was established.
22 metro pricing and rental context
| Metro / WATCH | Aug SFR closed median | Aug SFR ZORI/mo / YoY | Aug 5+unit ZORI/mo / YoY | Sept listings / YoY | Sept ask / YoY | DOM / cut share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL | $658,000 | $3,436 / 2.6% | $2,468 / 1.2% | 41277 / -12.3% | $490,000 / -2.0% | 85 / 14.9% |
| Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | $410,000 | $2,410 / 1.4% | $1,793 / -1.2% | 17965 / -3.8% | $385,398 / -6.6% | 76 / 27.5% |
| Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | $439,000 | $2,452 / 1.7% | $1,771 / -0.3% | 13869 / 0.3% | $410,000 / -2.5% | 77 / 22.7% |
| Jacksonville, FL | $405,000 | $2,075 / 2.5% | $1,522 / 1.1% | 7799 / -13.7% | $379,000 / -3.9% | 66 / 24.8% |
| North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL | $485,000 | $2,541 / 0.8% | $1,856 / -2.3% | 6905 / -14.5% | $457,450 / -3.7% | 88 / 18.1% |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | $380,000 | $2,154 / -0.0% | $1,664 / -1.7% | 9173 / -14.1% | $379,900 / -5.0% | 91 / 19.3% |
| Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | $327,000 | $2,099 / 2.6% | $1,587 / 0.1% | 4801 / 0.7% | $329,000 / -3.2% | 80 / 23.4% |
| Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL | $360,000 | $2,147 / 3.1% | $1,576 / -0.4% | 5472 / -12.3% | $374,950 / -3.1% | 78 / 22.9% |
| Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL | $375,000 | $2,255 / 2.6% | $1,665 / -0.2% | 3554 / -14.9% | $369,775 / -2.4% | 68 / 24.2% |
| Port St. Lucie, FL | $430,000 | $2,681 / 2.8% | $2,076 / 2.2% | 3905 / -9.1% | $429,000 / -0.8% | 80 / 19.4% |
| Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL | $332,900 | $1,948 / 2.0% | $1,592 / 2.7% | 2937 / -6.8% | $363,600 / 0.4% | 72 / 19.0% |
| Ocala, FL | $289,000 | $1,770 / 1.0% | $1,459 / -1.2% | 3468 / -12.5% | $299,900 / 0.0% | 77 / 21.0% |
| Naples-Marco Island, FL | $760,000 | $3,465 / 4.2% | $2,200 / -0.2% | 4523 / -14.5% | $676,694 / -1.9% | 101 / 12.3% |
| Tallahassee, FL | $349,950 | $1,650 / 1.9% | $1,347 / 1.0% | 1384 / 5.9% | $337,000 / -0.6% | 60 / 16.1% |
| Gainesville, FL | $352,995 | $2,001 / 2.9% | $1,553 / 0.8% | 1423 / -0.9% | $335,000 / 1.4% | 82 / 21.6% |
| Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL | $435,000 | $2,182 / 3.2% | $1,774 / 1.1% | 4194 / -10.4% | $595,000 / -1.6% | 98 / 18.9% |
| Panama City-Panama City Beach, FL | $365,000 | $2,110 / 1.6% | $1,581 / 0.5% | 2933 / -4.7% | $399,000 / -3.4% | 101 / 20.9% |
| Punta Gorda, FL | $350,000 | $2,087 / 1.0% | $1,544 / -2.1% | 2655 / -23.1% | $360,000 / -5.0% | 87 / 18.8% |
| Sebastian-Vero Beach-West Vero Corridor, FL | $410,000 | $2,330 / 5.5% | $1,847 / -0.9% | 1315 / -16.8% | $421,950 / -0.7% | 87 / 14.7% |
| Homosassa Springs, FL | $270,990 | $1,774 / 1.8% | $1,297 / 1.5% | 1529 / -15.0% | $299,950 / -4.5% | 87 / 20.9% |
| Wildwood-The Villages, FL | $382,000 | $1,962 / 4.2% | $1,579 / 4.8% | 593 / -7.7% | $388,925 / 4.4% | 59 / 20.8% |
| Sebring, FL | $271,900 | $1,616 / 0.7% | $1,161 / 3.3% | 917 / 15.3% | $284,950 / -6.1% | 80 / 20.5% |
Every market remains WATCH. This is evidence-limited monitoring, not proof every market has equal return. No market-wide Buy or Avoid claim is supported by verified property yields. Effective rent net of concessions, current small-MF vacancy, metro sale-to-final-list and investment-grade 3–5BR entry basis remain N/A. No 5+unit rent index is used as duplex/triplex/fourplex rent.
Demand, population and authorized supply
| Metro | Jobs YoY / unemployment Aug | Population 2025 / growth | Jan–Aug units permitted: 1 / 2 / 3–4 / 5+ | All-unit permits YoY | Annual rental vacancy / period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL | 0.4% / 3.7% | 6,391,072 / -0.1% | 4569 / 332 / 130 / 9875 | -0.8% | 8.3% / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | 0.9% / 4.7% | 3,418,895 / 0.4% | 9484 / 88 / 56 / 5470 | -7.9% | 11.2% / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 0.8% / 4.6% | 2,957,672 / 1.3% | 8997 / 120 / 236 / 4127 | -33.1% | 9.4% / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| Jacksonville, FL | 0.1% / 4.8% | 1,785,500 / 1.5% | 6625 / 52 / 7 / 1985 | -10.0% | 9.8% / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL | 1.0% / 4.9% | 948,158 / 1.4% | 7006 / 50 / 76 / 1747 | -13.8% | 16.6% / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | 0.5% / 5.2% | 875,607 / 1.6% | 5267 / 104 / 32 / 2436 | -22.5% | 10.7% / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | 1.3% / 5.6% | 874,790 / 2.7% | 4584 / 52 / 0 / 192 | -21.2% | N/A / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL | 0.9% / 5.3% | 746,933 / 1.3% | 2641 / 80 / 3 / 305 | -23.1% | N/A / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL | 0.5% / 4.8% | 663,982 / 1.2% | 2483 / 0 / 9 / 729 | 12.6% | N/A / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| Port St. Lucie, FL | 0.5% / 5.2% | 568,721 / 2.1% | 3044 / 36 / 12 / 24 | -14.8% | N/A / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL | -0.2% / 4.9% | 544,949 / 0.9% | 2660 / 22 / 0 / 138 | 22.7% | N/A / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| Ocala, FL | 1.2% / 5.7% | 442,660 / 3.4% | 3985 / 68 / 0 / 0 | -10.0% | N/A / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| Naples-Marco Island, FL | 1.4% / 5.0% | 417,131 / 0.1% | 1490 / 2 / 8 / 972 | 14.8% | N/A / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| Tallahassee, FL | 1.3% / 4.9% | 397,442 / 0.4% | 807 / 14 / 0 / 683 | -19.5% | N/A / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| Gainesville, FL | 0.6% / 5.4% | 359,036 / 0.5% | 839 / 26 / 8 / 1082 | 22.6% | N/A / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL | 0.4% / 4.3% | 315,098 / 1.6% | 2143 / 74 / 8 / 385 | 5.8% | N/A / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| Panama City-Panama City Beach, FL | 1.8% / 4.5% | 231,174 / 2.0% | 1335 / 12 / 6 / 150 | -6.7% | N/A / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| Punta Gorda, FL | 0.0% / 5.9% | 217,212 / 2.7% | 2225 / 42 / 38 / 107 | 12.3% | N/A / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| Sebastian-Vero Beach-West Vero Corridor, FL | -0.2% / 5.6% | 172,799 / 0.7% | 113 / 2 / 0 / 204 | 163.6% | N/A / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| Homosassa Springs, FL | -0.5% / 6.7% | 171,666 / 1.1% | 1254 / 14 / 3 / 0 | -9.4% | N/A / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| Wildwood-The Villages, FL | 0.7% / 7.9% | 157,772 / 2.3% | 2742 / 98 / 0 / 26 | 19.4% | N/A / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
| Sebring, FL | 0.7% / 6.8% | 111,122 / 1.1% | 435 / 6 / 0 / 0 | -17.7% | N/A / 2025 annual; 11 months, excludes uncollected October |
Annual vacancy is an all-rental survey proxy with the baseline confidence intervals preserved in JSON; not current matched small-MF vacancy. Household growth, current deliveries and active construction pipeline are unverified for all markets. Permitted units are not evidence of completion. Rental concessions from the August 0–2BR Realtor.com sample: Miami, Tampa, Orlando and Jacksonville observations remain in JSON; no concession rate is extrapolated to other metros or specific subjects.
Separate duplex, triplex and fourplex market tables
No representative legal acquisition basis or complete legal available-listing count can be established from this selected set. Each table is deliberately separate and uses the same definitions. N/A is a missing value, not zero inventory. Current legal small-MF per-unit annual rent, gross rent, NOI, cap rate, economic vacancy and property OER are N/A at market level. The candidate models below are not medians. The separate 100-point duplex, triplex and fourplex rankings and combined small-MF investment ranking are withheld rather than manufactured from apartment proxies.
Duplex market coverage
| Market | Verified active legal count | Representative basis / unit | Annual-lease rent / unit | NOI / cap / rank | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Jacksonville, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Port St. Lucie, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Ocala, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Naples-Marco Island, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Tallahassee, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Gainesville, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Panama City-Panama City Beach, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Punta Gorda, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Sebastian-Vero Beach-West Vero Corridor, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Homosassa Springs, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Wildwood-The Villages, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Sebring, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
Triplex market coverage
| Market | Verified active legal count | Representative basis / unit | Annual-lease rent / unit | NOI / cap / rank | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Jacksonville, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Port St. Lucie, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Ocala, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Naples-Marco Island, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Tallahassee, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Gainesville, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Panama City-Panama City Beach, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Punta Gorda, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Sebastian-Vero Beach-West Vero Corridor, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Homosassa Springs, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Wildwood-The Villages, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Sebring, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
Fourplex market coverage
| Market | Verified active legal count | Representative basis / unit | Annual-lease rent / unit | NOI / cap / rank | Stance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Jacksonville, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Port St. Lucie, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Ocala, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Naples-Marco Island, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Tallahassee, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Gainesville, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Panama City-Panama City Beach, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Punta Gorda, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Sebastian-Vero Beach-West Vero Corridor, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Homosassa Springs, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Wildwood-The Villages, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
| Sebring, FL | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | WATCH |
Ranking methodology and ten SFR research priorities
Requested 100 points: yield/debt 25; tenant demand 15; buyer leverage 15; supply/vacancy 15; insurance/flood/climate 15; employment/households 10; liquidity 5. Missing yield, parcel risk and matched vacancy prevent complete scores. The unchanged baseline partial screen generally covers 55 points, with missing points shown as ranges rather than normalized. It ranks research priority only; type-specific acquisition and insurance evidence is absent. All alternative-strategy rankings are UNVERIFIED, with no incremental income or points.
| Research order (not investment rank) | Market | Known partial points / covered | Full-score possible interval | Conventional / house hack / ADU / MTR / STR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL | 35.5 / 55 | 35.5–80.5 | WATCH / unverified / unverified / unverified / unverified |
| 2 | Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | 35.5 / 55 | 35.5–80.5 | WATCH / unverified / unverified / unverified / unverified |
| 3 | Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | 33.5 / 55 | 33.5–78.5 | WATCH / unverified / unverified / unverified / unverified |
| 4 | Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL | 33.0 / 55 | 33.0–78.0 | WATCH / unverified / unverified / unverified / unverified |
| 5 | Jacksonville, FL | 33.0 / 55 | 33.0–78.0 | WATCH / unverified / unverified / unverified / unverified |
| 6 | Port St. Lucie, FL | 33 / 55 | 33–78 | WATCH / unverified / unverified / unverified / unverified |
| 7 | Panama City-Panama City Beach, FL | 32.5 / 55 | 32.5–77.5 | WATCH / unverified / unverified / unverified / unverified |
| 8 | Tallahassee, FL | 32 / 55 | 32–77 | WATCH / unverified / unverified / unverified / unverified |
| 9 | Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | 32 / 55 | 32–77 | WATCH / unverified / unverified / unverified / unverified |
| 10 | Gainesville, FL | 31.5 / 55 | 31.5–76.5 | WATCH / unverified / unverified / unverified / unverified |
No ten-market “strongest investment” conclusion is claimed. Annual and per-bedroom subject rents, 3–5BR price/sf distributions, approved rooming/ADU/STR uses and complete operating budgets are missing. Best-fit strategy for the ten priorities is ordinary annual rental subject to legal/deed review; biggest common risk is price unsupported by after-reserve cash flow. Target basis is the smaller property-specific 80% preferred or 85% conditional ceiling, after capital work; there is no defensible metro-wide offer price.
Financing and underwriting definitions
Model assumptions: 8% combined economic vacancy/collection loss; management 10% of EGI; routine maintenance 7% of gross scheduled rent; replacement reserve 5% of gross scheduled rent. Post-sale taxes use baseline parcel rates where available, otherwise 2% of offer, plus known non-ad-valorem charges and any stated floor. Insurance budgets use baseline county-risk rules: SFR at least $3,500, duplex at least $4,500, three/four units at least $6,000; higher county budgets apply. Flood provision $1,500 is a placeholder, not a quote. Owner utility, HOA and license inputs are retained individually in JSON. Zero documented HOA/license costs do not establish no obligation. Unknown assessments, septic work, code compliance and capital work remain unpriced.
EGI = gross scheduled rent × 92%. NOI = EGI − management − maintenance − fixed operating costs; reserves excluded from NOI and deducted separately for DSCR. Cap rate = NOI / purchase price; unlevered after-reserve yield is also shown. Debt is 75% of price amortized for 30 years at 8.75%, with 9.75% sensitivity. After-reserve break-even occupancy = (fixed costs + maintenance + reserve + annual debt service) / (gross scheduled rent × 90%). It is a collected-rent ratio, not literal physical occupancy; >100% means even full collection cannot cover modeled costs. Lender rent/PITIA coverage differs.
Operating sensitivity: lower scheduled rent 5%; increase base operating-expense/EGI ratio five percentage points, with a floor at the stressed variable costs plus unchanged fixed costs. Hold the original dollar replacement reserve. Conditional maximum price satisfies base after-reserve DSCR ≥1.25, base break-even ≤85% and operating-stress DSCR ≥1.00; preferred ceiling uses 80%. Rent/test budgets are not appraisals. Owner-occupied house-hack financing is not modeled as if it were an investor loan.
Small-multifamily candidate status and screening economics
Zero legally qualified Best Triplex or Best Fourplex is awarded. Only two triplex portals still show active; neither has current legal-unit, metering, flood/insurance and condition clearance. Fourplex records are selected screens, with availability and rent evidence shown. Do not pad with removed listings or treat conversion claims as approved units. No annual-lease market rent is inferred by multiplying a portal Rent Zestimate.
Duplex property screens
| Address / direct listing | Status Oct 15 | Ask / claimed unit | Modeled monthly rent per unit | Annual gross / NOI | Cap / DSCR after reserve / break-even | Conditional max / preferred |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1811/1815 Whitner Street, Jacksonville, FL 32209 | Portal active | $210,000 / $105,000 | $950 | $22,800 / $4,682 | 2.2% / 0.24× / 147.2% | $69,447 / $58,148 |
| 6600/6602 Pot O Gold Lane, Orlando, FL 32809 | Accepting backups | $540,000 / $270,000 | $1,800 | $43,200 / $13,802 | 2.6% / 0.30× / 160.4% | $194,012 / $179,822 |
| 1010/1012 Gerald Avenue, Lehigh Acres, FL 33936 | Portal active | $499,000 / $249,500 | $1,650 | $39,600 / $13,137 | 2.6% / 0.32× / 159.8% | $194,802 / $185,677 |
| 1255 NE 110th Terrace, Miami, FL 33161 | Portal active | $639,000 / $319,500 | $2,550 | $61,200 / $20,710 | 3.2% / 0.39× / 142.1% | $280,447 / $262,326 |
| 3701 W Brainerd Street A & B, Pensacola, FL 32505 | Portal offered for sale | $252,000 / $126,000 | $1,050 | $25,200 / $4,562 | 1.8% / 0.19× / 156.1% | $74,381 / $61,892 |
1811/1815 Whitner Street, Jacksonville, FL 32209: 99 displayed days; current listing July 5, no new cut observed. $1,900 aggregate annual-lease monthly income remains a listing claim.
October 3 evidence retained (not reverified): mix: Two 2-bedroom/1-bath units; upstairs/downstairs; legal issue: RLD-60 and tiny 0.05-acre lot require lawful nonconforming/rebuild confirmation; no original CO retrieved; rent basis: Existing aggregate advertised income, no market increase; condition claims: Roof 2018; kitchens/plumbing 2022; second-unit HVAC 2023; second-unit water heater/panel 2026; lease expiries: ['Upstairs 2027-04-30', 'Downstairs month-to-month']. Current legal unit count and separate metering unverified. Flood zone and insurance quote unverified; immediate capital needs unpriced. Appeal is disclosed annual-income or low-basis screening potential; largest risk is unresolved legal use and all-in operating/capital cost. No executable offer until these clear.
6600/6602 Pot O Gold Lane, Orlando, FL 32809: Current page accepts backups; exclude from active primary shortlist. September 15 price $540,000.
October 3 evidence retained (not reverified): mix: Two 2-bedroom/2-bath units, each about 1,000 sf with garage; legal issue: No original CO; official permit index has 10 entries, then CAPTCHA prevents details; existing zoning class not occupancy proof; permit evidence: Index: complete electrical E22017459, Dec 2022; B17002358/B17001339 residential 2017; H17000743 mechanical 2017; B08006552 residential 2008; T07050338 roof 2007; plumbing 1997; electrical 1992; 2017 rezoning withdrawn. Scope beyond index unverified.; rent basis: Existing stated leases without upside; condition: 1970 block/stucco; septic; public water; roof life/septic inspection unresolved; lease expiries: ['October 2026', 'September 2027']. Current legal unit count and separate metering unverified. Flood zone and insurance quote unverified; immediate capital needs unpriced. Appeal is disclosed annual-income or low-basis screening potential; largest risk is unresolved legal use and all-in operating/capital cost. No executable offer until these clear.
1010/1012 Gerald Avenue, Lehigh Acres, FL 33936: 114 added-to-site days; August 25 listing update. Legal bedroom discrepancy remains.
October 3 evidence retained (not reverified): mix: Two 1199 sf units; listing has 6 beds total, county has 4 beds/4 baths; likely den/bedroom discrepancy needs plans; legal issue: New construction permit RES2024-03891 indexed; Accela blocked public portal after one reload, no CO retrieved; bedroom discrepancy unresolved; rent basis: Existing stated August 2026 annual leases, no seller hypothetical uplift; lease expiries: ['Annual terms began August 2026; exact expiry unknown']. Current legal unit count and separate metering unverified. Flood zone and insurance quote unverified; immediate capital needs unpriced. Appeal is disclosed annual-income or low-basis screening potential; largest risk is unresolved legal use and all-in operating/capital cost. No executable offer until these clear.
1255 NE 110th Terrace, Miami, FL 33161: $639,000; August 6 price/list event. No current lease or meter proof.
October 3 evidence retained (not reverified): mix: 3/1 plus 2/1 per older listing; current 5 beds/2 baths; rent basis: Advertised existing rents only; no leases, ledger, or actual collection proof. Current legal unit count and separate metering unverified. Flood zone and insurance quote unverified; immediate capital needs unpriced. Appeal is disclosed annual-income or low-basis screening potential; largest risk is unresolved legal use and all-in operating/capital cost. No executable offer until these clear.
3701 W Brainerd Street A & B, Pensacola, FL 32505: $900 + $1,200 monthly rent claim; latest full status not independently broker-confirmed.
October 3 evidence retained (not reverified): mix: Two 2/1s; rent basis: Advertised existing rents, no increase; condition: 1938 frame/off-grade; roof age and termite/wind resistance unknown. Current legal unit count and separate metering unverified. Flood zone and insurance quote unverified; immediate capital needs unpriced. Appeal is disclosed annual-income or low-basis screening potential; largest risk is unresolved legal use and all-in operating/capital cost. No executable offer until these clear.
Triplex property screens
| Address / direct listing | Status Oct 15 | Ask / claimed unit | Modeled monthly rent per unit | Annual gross / NOI | Cap / DSCR after reserve / break-even | Conditional max / preferred |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4265 SW 51st Street #1-3, Dania Beach, FL 33314 | Portal active | $769,000 / $256,333 | $1,653 | $59,520 / $12,336 | 1.6% / 0.17× / 176.2% | $228,012 / $201,667 |
| 5200-5208 NW 16th Street, Lauderhill, FL 33313 | Portal active | $709,000 / $236,333 | $1,733 | $62,376 / $15,701 | 2.2% / 0.25× / 159.0% | $246,648 / $220,539 |
| 1403 College Park Lane, Tampa, FL 33612 | Listing removed | $440,000 / $146,667 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A / N/A |
| 134 W 32nd Street, Jacksonville, FL 32206 | Listing removed | $109,999 / $36,666 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A / N/A |
4265 SW 51st Street #1-3, Dania Beach, FL 33314: 120 displayed days; listed June 4, no current price cut observed. Three assessed units in baseline do not prove lawful triplex use in RD-8000.
October 3 evidence retained (not reverified): unit mix: [{'unit': '1', 'beds': 2, 'baths': 1, 'sqft': 850, 'advertised_actual_monthly_rent': 1850, 'lease_expiry': '2027-02-28', 'term_months': 12}, {'unit': '2', 'beds': 3, 'baths': 1, 'sqft': 1051, 'advertised_actual_monthly_rent': 1960, 'lease_expiry': '2026-12-31', 'term_months': 24}, {'unit': '3', 'beds': 1, 'baths': 1, 'sqft': 462, 'advertised_actual_monthly_rent': 1150, 'lease_expiry': '2026-12-31', 'term_months': 12}]; zoning issue: Dania code calls R-D 8000 Two-Family Residential District; three assessed units do not establish lawful triplex use. Need city confirmation of lawful nonconforming use and restoration/rebuild rights.; permit evidence: Dania public address search returned six records: roof, fence, doors and plumbing; no original three-unit CO found. Roof 2021-00001487 has final pass 2021-10-14 and completed status 2022-09-06. Fence 2019-00000646 final pass 2019-04-26. These are limited-scope permits, not occupancy approval.; rent basis: Use disclosed existing unit rents without upside. Need leases, ledger and estoppels; documents advertised available but not supplied.. Current legal unit count and separate metering unverified. Flood zone and insurance quote unverified; immediate capital needs unpriced. Appeal is disclosed annual-income or low-basis screening potential; largest risk is unresolved legal use and all-in operating/capital cost. No executable offer until these clear.
5200-5208 NW 16th Street, Lauderhill, FL 33313: 154 displayed days; page flags October 8 $400 cut, while baseline ask was $709,500: snapshot difference $500. Do not reconcile away provider inconsistency. Two 2/1s and one 2/2 claimed.
October 3 evidence retained (not reverified): unit mix: [{'count': 2, 'beds': 2, 'baths': 1}, {'count': 1, 'beds': 2, 'baths': 2}]; permit evidence: BCPA building card has no listed permit/CO rows and warns records may be incomplete. Its Lauderhill permit link returned 502 connection closed. No legal unit-count approval obtained.; rent basis: Lower of the two advertised triplex totals; provisional until address-specific rent roll. No upside used.. Current legal unit count and separate metering unverified. Flood zone and insurance quote unverified; immediate capital needs unpriced. Appeal is disclosed annual-income or low-basis screening potential; largest risk is unresolved legal use and all-in operating/capital cost. No executable offer until these clear.
1403 College Park Lane, Tampa, FL 33612: Zillow history shows removed October 8. Excluded from active shortlist.
October 3 evidence retained (not reverified): unit mix: [{'unit': 'A', 'beds': 3, 'baths': 1, 'advertised_actual_monthly_rent': 1900}, {'unit': 'B', 'beds': 1, 'baths': 1, 'advertised_actual_monthly_rent': 1250}, {'unit': 'C', 'beds': 0, 'baths': 1, 'advertised_actual_monthly_rent': 1000}]; permit evidence: HCPA lists RGB43056 on June 2 2015 as RES/DUPLEX/REMODEL KITCHENS UNITS A & B. Sewer-line replacement NPL47058 August 2015; meter/A-C NEL45826 May 2015. No third-unit CO identified. Assessor expressly says it must list improvements including potentially unpermitted work.; rent basis: Do not underwrite $4,150 as current collected income. If exactly one unit vacant, known potential in-place aggregate could range $2,250-$3,150 depending on which. Obtain unit-level status first.. Current legal unit count and separate metering unverified. Flood zone and insurance quote unverified; immediate capital needs unpriced. Appeal is disclosed annual-income or low-basis screening potential; largest risk is unresolved legal use and all-in operating/capital cost. No executable offer until these clear.
134 W 32nd Street, Jacksonville, FL 32206: Zillow history shows removed October 5. Excluded from active shortlist.
October 3 evidence retained (not reverified): unit mix: [{'count': 1, 'beds': 2, 'baths': 1, 'location': 'upstairs'}, {'count': 2, 'beds': 1, 'baths': 1, 'location': 'downstairs'}]; permit evidence: No unit-count CO retrieved; separate permit/municipal legal-use inquiry remains outstanding; rent basis: Seller target is unsubstantiated. No rent comps or renovation bid establish stabilized rent; current income zero.; condition: AS-IS renovation required. Listing says central HVAC but assessor says wall units/unducted heat; inspect systems.; lease expiries: No existing leases per listing. Current legal unit count and separate metering unverified. Flood zone and insurance quote unverified; immediate capital needs unpriced. Appeal is disclosed annual-income or low-basis screening potential; largest risk is unresolved legal use and all-in operating/capital cost. No executable offer until these clear.
Fourplex property screens
| Address / direct listing | Status Oct 15 | Ask / claimed unit | Modeled monthly rent per unit | Annual gross / NOI | Cap / DSCR after reserve / break-even | Conditional max / preferred |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 519 W 23rd St, Jacksonville, FL 32206 | Availability conflict | $335,000 / $83,750 | $781 | $37,500 / $9,425 | 2.8% / 0.32× / 139.9% | $130,915 / $112,331 |
| 902–904 E Lime St, Lakeland, FL 33801 | Portal for sale | $499,000 / $124,750 | $1,112 | $53,400 / $15,389 | 3.1% / 0.36× / 139.0% | $209,202 / $186,470 |
| 997 Sutor Rd, Tallahassee, FL 32311 | Cached sale offer; freshness unconfirmed | $499,000 / $124,750 | $1,100 | $52,800 / $21,342 | 4.3% / 0.53× / 127.0% | $264,345 / $253,075 |
| 1840 Lafayette St, Fort Myers, FL 33901 | Portal active; rent/legal unresolved | $599,900 / $149,975 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A / N/A |
| 1504 W 15th St, Jacksonville, FL 32209 | Availability unconfirmed | $240,000 / $60,000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A / N/A |
519 W 23rd St, Jacksonville, FL 32206: NYStateMLS active $335,000; Redfin off market. Exclude from active shortlist pending reconciliation. Four 1/1 rent claims total $3,125/month.
October 3 evidence retained (not reverified): unit mix: 4 x 1BR/1BA; legal status: County assessed quadruplex and permits recognize3/4families; legal nonconforming status and CO unresolved; official permit evidence: 19 JAXEPICS results; finalized electrical E-05-40921.000 unit2 issued7/19/2005 classifies Residential3Or4Families. Other finalized permits for units1–4; roof R-20-298326.000 finalized. No CO/building-creation permit in inspected19results.; conservative rent basis: No uplift over disclosed in-place schedule; not lease/collection verified. Recent subject rental asks around$775 corroborate order of magnitude.. Current legal unit count and separate metering unverified. Flood zone and insurance quote unverified; immediate capital needs unpriced. Appeal is disclosed annual-income or low-basis screening potential; largest risk is unresolved legal use and all-in operating/capital cost. No executable offer until these clear.
902–904 E Lime St, Lakeland, FL 33801: Innovate offered for sale at $499,000. Four 1/1 units; $4,450 monthly income and $634 owner utilities are claims. Listing DOM not established.
October 3 evidence retained (not reverified): unit mix: 4x1BR/1BA claimed, two units per building; legal status: County confirms2+2livingunits; no approved conversion/CO or independent parcel zoning verification; official permit evidence: Appraiser routes to Lakeland permit agency; no parcel permits/CO obtained; conservative rent basis: No uplift from seller current aggregate rent; require individual leases/collections. Current legal unit count and separate metering unverified. Flood zone and insurance quote unverified; immediate capital needs unpriced. Appeal is disclosed annual-income or low-basis screening potential; largest risk is unresolved legal use and all-in operating/capital cost. No executable offer until these clear.
997 Sutor Rd, Tallahassee, FL 32311: Crexi search result advertises $499,000 and $1,100 per unit; live detail failed on follow-up. Alternate IDX returned 403. Baseline three occupied units; fourth-unit stabilization remains modeled.
October 3 evidence retained (not reverified): unit mix: 4x2BR/1BA,777sf each; legal status: Official city GIS confirms MR-1. A city permit explicitly classifies the building as a quadriplex; CO and possible lot-size nonconformity remain unresolved.; official permit evidence: Nine permits returned. TBM241596: mechanical changeout, Unit D, Alteration Quadriplex, expired December 30, 2024. TBB110481: completed 2011 siding and structural wood repair. TBM141772: AC changeout completed July 23, 2014.; conservative rent basis: Three occupied units at $1,100/month. $4,400/month requires leasing the fourth unit and is potential, not current in-place income.. Current legal unit count and separate metering unverified. Flood zone and insurance quote unverified; immediate capital needs unpriced. Appeal is disclosed annual-income or low-basis screening potential; largest risk is unresolved legal use and all-in operating/capital cost. No executable offer until these clear.
1840 Lafayette St, Fort Myers, FL 33901: 154 displayed days, July 13 listing update. Four 2/1s and 1988 claimed; baseline county bedroom/year discrepancy unresolved. No offer-ready rent roll.
October 3 evidence retained (not reverified): unit mix: Listing claims four 2BR/1BA units; county record has three total bedrooms and four baths, a material discrepancy.; legal status: Official appraisal shows four living units and Family Conversion type. CO, conversion approval, bedroom count and actual construction year are unresolved.; official permit evidence: County links TRD-055775-2025 plumbing, TRD2020-01605 roof/sheds, TRD2006-01870 remodel/repair, and 9003706 roof. These pointers do not establish a CO and are not a comprehensive permit history.; conservative rent basis: No actual rent roll or current occupancy. Advertised $58,800 gross scheduled income is not established current rent or collections; no offer-ready rent base.. Current legal unit count and separate metering unverified. Flood zone and insurance quote unverified; immediate capital needs unpriced. Appeal is disclosed annual-income or low-basis screening potential; largest risk is unresolved legal use and all-in operating/capital cost. No executable offer until these clear.
1504 W 15th St, Jacksonville, FL 32209: LoopNet detail retrieval failed; no current active assertion. Keep historical record only.
October 3 evidence retained (not reverified): unit mix: Official appraisal shows four bedrooms/four bathrooms; four 1BR/1BA units are inferred, not independently confirmed.; legal status: Official appraisal identifies an 0803 quadruplex with four units and RLD-60 zoning assessment. CO and legal nonconforming status unverified.; conservative rent basis: Do not treat $42,600 pro forma rent as actual. Listing says only three units occupied; current rent roll required.. Current legal unit count and separate metering unverified. Flood zone and insurance quote unverified; immediate capital needs unpriced. Appeal is disclosed annual-income or low-basis screening potential; largest risk is unresolved legal use and all-in operating/capital cost. No executable offer until these clear.
Five active SFR diligence screens
These are five currently offered public-portal leads, not a verified statewide best set. New Ocala inputs are explicit test rents, not verified market-rent conclusions. Only ordinary annual-rental income is modeled. No candidate passes at asking; Best Conventional SFR, Best House Hack and Best Flexible-Strategy SFR remain unawarded. Selected samples cannot establish metro entry pricing. Non-waterfront preference, low-risk FEMA zone, legal bedroom count, deeds and system condition require parcel verification for every row.
3333 Almeda St, Jacksonville, FL 32209
3/2, 1,200 sf, 2026, $183/sf. Listing updated September 10; appliances conditional on accepted offer. No new cut established.
| Listing claim | Value | Model / derived | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beds/baths; sf; year | 3/2; 1200; 2026 | Asking / price per sf | $219,000 / $182 |
| Executed rent / lease expiry | Not verified | Annual-rental test rent / annual gross | $1,500 / $18,000 |
| Insurance quote / FEMA zone | Not verified | Taxes / insurance / flood / utilities budget | $4,380 / $3,500 / $1,500 / $1,200 |
| HOA/deed, permits, condition | Unverified | Operating expenses / OER | $13,496 / 81.5% |
| Immediate capex | Unknown; obtain bid | NOI / reserve / cap | $3,064 / $900 / 1.4% |
| Strategy upside | Unverified; no credit | DSCR conventional / after reserve | 0.20× / 0.14× |
| Current purchase verdict | WATCH; fails at ask | Break-even / unlevered after reserve | 174.4% / 1.0% |
| Conditional max / preferred | $59,580 / $50,659 | Stress after-reserve DSCR | 0.08× |
Rent basis: Low/moderate asking-comp evidence; brand-new nearby larger duplex rents compete. All alternative-strategy scenarios are unpriced pending authoritative use, occupancy, parking, safety, duration, license and HOA/lender/insurer approval. The base-case deficit must not be filled with assumed room rent, an ADU, seasonal rates or a future refinancing. Max offer is before capex and unresolved costs; ordinary annual-rental cash flow fails at asking.
8625 Stockdale Ave, Pensacola, FL 32514
3/2, 1,228 sf, 1960, 156 displayed days; $9,000 cut September 2. Roof/HVAC/water heater replaced within three years claimed.
| Listing claim | Value | Model / derived | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beds/baths; sf; year | 3/2; 1228; 1960 | Asking / price per sf | $199,000 / $162 |
| Executed rent / lease expiry | Not verified | Annual-rental test rent / annual gross | $1,600 / $19,200 |
| Insurance quote / FEMA zone | Not verified | Taxes / insurance / flood / utilities budget | $3,980 / $4,700 / $1,500 / $1,200 |
| HOA/deed, permits, condition | Unverified | Operating expenses / OER | $14,490 / 82.0% |
| Immediate capex | Unknown; obtain bid | NOI / reserve / cap | $3,174 / $960 / 1.6% |
| Strategy upside | Unverified; no credit | DSCR conventional / after reserve | 0.23× / 0.16× |
| Current purchase verdict | WATCH; fails at ask | Break-even / unlevered after reserve | 160.7% / 1.1% |
| Conditional max / preferred | $54,888 / $45,373 | Stress after-reserve DSCR | 0.09× |
Rent basis: Moderate: own recent asking history at 1600, comparable 111 Wildflower 1595. All alternative-strategy scenarios are unpriced pending authoritative use, occupancy, parking, safety, duration, license and HOA/lender/insurer approval. The base-case deficit must not be filled with assumed room rent, an ADU, seasonal rates or a future refinancing. Max offer is before capex and unresolved costs; ordinary annual-rental cash flow fails at asking.
481 Emerald Road, Ocala, FL 34472
September 8 $230,000; September 21 $225,000. No HOA claimed; 1 carport space with screened patio conversion ambiguity; roof/HVAC ages unknown; R1 listing zoning. Public water/sewer. No lawful conversion income.
| Listing claim | Value | Model / derived | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beds/baths; sf; year | 3/2; 1767; 1977 | Asking / price per sf | $225,000 / $127 |
| Executed rent / lease expiry | Not verified | Annual-rental test rent / annual gross | $1,650 / $19,800 |
| Insurance quote / FEMA zone | Not verified | Taxes / insurance / flood / utilities budget | $4,500 / $3,500 / $1,500 / $1,200 |
| HOA/deed, permits, condition | Unverified | Operating expenses / OER | $13,908 / 76.3% |
| Immediate capex | Unknown; obtain bid | NOI / reserve / cap | $4,308 / $990 / 1.9% |
| Strategy upside | Unverified; no credit | DSCR conventional / after reserve | 0.27× / 0.21× |
| Current purchase verdict | WATCH; fails at ask | Break-even / unlevered after reserve | 162.8% / 1.5% |
| Conditional max / preferred | $72,056 / $62,553 | Stress after-reserve DSCR | 0.14× |
Rent basis: Analyst annual-rental test rent; not a verified current market rent. No income upside or appreciation credited.. All alternative-strategy scenarios are unpriced pending authoritative use, occupancy, parking, safety, duration, license and HOA/lender/insurer approval. The base-case deficit must not be filled with assumed room rent, an ADU, seasonal rates or a future refinancing. Max offer is before capex and unresolved costs; ordinary annual-rental cash flow fails at asking.
13160 SW 31st Avenue Road, Ocala, FL 34473
Listed October 4 at $245,000. No HOA/CDD claimed. Roof, AC, windows 2021; septic cleaned 2024; water heater 2024 claims. Septic capacity, parking, permits and condition unverified.
| Listing claim | Value | Model / derived | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beds/baths; sf; year | 3/2; 1296; 1993 | Asking / price per sf | $245,000 / $189 |
| Executed rent / lease expiry | Not verified | Annual-rental test rent / annual gross | $1,650 / $19,800 |
| Insurance quote / FEMA zone | Not verified | Taxes / insurance / flood / utilities budget | $4,900 / $3,500 / $1,500 / $1,200 |
| HOA/deed, permits, condition | Unverified | Operating expenses / OER | $14,308 / 78.5% |
| Immediate capex | Unknown; obtain bid | NOI / reserve / cap | $3,908 / $990 / 1.6% |
| Strategy upside | Unverified; no credit | DSCR conventional / after reserve | 0.23× / 0.17× |
| Current purchase verdict | WATCH; fails at ask | Break-even / unlevered after reserve | 173.0% / 1.2% |
| Conditional max / preferred | $72,056 / $62,553 | Stress after-reserve DSCR | 0.11× |
Rent basis: Analyst annual-rental test rent; not a verified current market rent. No income upside or appreciation credited.. All alternative-strategy scenarios are unpriced pending authoritative use, occupancy, parking, safety, duration, license and HOA/lender/insurer approval. The base-case deficit must not be filled with assumed room rent, an ADU, seasonal rates or a future refinancing. Max offer is before capex and unresolved costs; ordinary annual-rental cash flow fails at asking.
130 SW 69th Street, Ocala, FL 34476
June 14 $359,000; July 6 $355,000; August 18 $350,000; September 3 $345,000; October 7 $349,000. $7,500 conditional seller credit not deducted from price. No HOA; roof 2023/panel 2025 claimed; two-car detached workshop not credited as dwelling. Historical March $2,200 rent ask is not an executed lease.
| Listing claim | Value | Model / derived | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beds/baths; sf; year | 3/2; 1846; 1967 | Asking / price per sf | $349,000 / $189 |
| Executed rent / lease expiry | Not verified | Annual-rental test rent / annual gross | $1,900 / $22,800 |
| Insurance quote / FEMA zone | Not verified | Taxes / insurance / flood / utilities budget | $6,980 / $3,500 / $1,500 / $1,200 |
| HOA/deed, permits, condition | Unverified | Operating expenses / OER | $16,874 / 80.4% |
| Immediate capex | Unknown; obtain bid | NOI / reserve / cap | $4,102 / $1,140 / 1.2% |
| Strategy upside | Unverified; no credit | DSCR conventional / after reserve | 0.17× / 0.12× |
| Current purchase verdict | WATCH; fails at ask | Break-even / unlevered after reserve | 198.0% / 0.8% |
| Conditional max / preferred | $91,632 / $82,376 | Stress after-reserve DSCR | 0.07× |
Rent basis: Analyst annual-rental test rent; not a verified current market rent. No income upside or appreciation credited.. All alternative-strategy scenarios are unpriced pending authoritative use, occupancy, parking, safety, duration, license and HOA/lender/insurer approval. The base-case deficit must not be filled with assumed room rent, an ADU, seasonal rates or a future refinancing. Max offer is before capex and unresolved costs; ordinary annual-rental cash flow fails at asking.
Removed and unavailable SFR history
| Property | Last displayed asking (historical) | Current observation |
|---|---|---|
| 1195 Simpson St, Pensacola, FL 32526 | $235,000 | Contingent / conflicting stale active pages; Trulia September 24 contingent overrides older active snapshots; exclude primary shortlist. |
| 3946 Magellan Trail, Tallahassee, FL 32303 | $225,000 | Contingent; Redfin under contract, updated October 6; 13 displayed days. Excluded primary shortlist. |
| 4001 NW 48 th Place, Gainesville, FL 32606 | $225,000 | Pending; backups only; Compass pending/contract out; backup offers accepted. Excluded primary shortlist. |
| 8015 Galveston Ave, Jacksonville, FL 32211 | $179,000 | Off market on current Redfin page; Current page shows historical 2023 sale and $181,605 estimate, not $179,000 active asking. Remove active claim; no estimate treated as asking. |
| 839 Angle St NE, Palm Bay, FL 32905 | $249,900 | Pending; Compass pending/contract signed. Excluded primary shortlist. |
Sensitivity for every modeled candidate
| Property | Base NOI / OER | Base after-reserve DSCR | Rent −5%, OER +5pp DSCR | 9.75% rate DSCR | Combined stress DSCR | Annual cash after debt/reserve |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1811/1815 Whitner Street, Jacksonville, FL 32209 | $4,682 / 77.7% | 0.24× | 0.16× | 0.22× | 0.14× | $-11,326 |
| 6600/6602 Pot O Gold Lane, Orlando, FL 32809 | $13,802 / 65.3% | 0.30× | 0.24× | 0.28× | 0.22× | $-26,592 |
| 1010/1012 Gerald Avenue, Lehigh Acres, FL 33936 | $13,137 / 63.9% | 0.32× | 0.25× | 0.29× | 0.23× | $-24,174 |
| 1255 NE 110th Terrace, Miami, FL 33161 | $20,710 / 63.2% | 0.39× | 0.31× | 0.36× | 0.28× | $-27,594 |
| 3701 W Brainerd Street A & B, Pensacola, FL 32505 | $4,562 / 80.3% | 0.19× | 0.11× | 0.17× | 0.10× | $-14,541 |
| 4265 SW 51st Street #1-3, Dania Beach, FL 33314 | $12,336 / 77.5% | 0.17× | 0.11× | 0.16× | 0.10× | $-45,087 |
| 5200-5208 NW 16th Street, Lauderhill, FL 33313 | $15,701 / 72.6% | 0.25× | 0.18× | 0.23× | 0.17× | $-37,617 |
| 519 W 23rd St, Jacksonville, FL 32206 | $9,425 / 72.7% | 0.32× | 0.23× | 0.29× | 0.21× | $-16,169 |
| 902–904 E Lime St, Lakeland, FL 33801 | $15,389 / 68.7% | 0.36× | 0.27× | 0.33× | 0.25× | $-22,612 |
| 997 Sutor Rd, Tallahassee, FL 32311 | $21,342 / 56.1% | 0.53× | 0.43× | 0.48× | 0.40× | $-16,628 |
| 3333 Almeda St, Jacksonville, FL 32209 | $3,064 / 81.5% | 0.14× | 0.08× | 0.13× | 0.07× | $-13,342 |
| 8625 Stockdale Ave, Pensacola, FL 32514 | $3,174 / 82.0% | 0.16× | 0.09× | 0.14× | 0.08× | $-11,876 |
| 1195 Simpson St, Pensacola, FL 32526 | $2,908 / 84.0% | 0.12× | 0.05× | 0.11× | 0.05× | $-14,720 |
| 3946 Magellan Trail, Tallahassee, FL 32303 | $5,218 / 73.0% | 0.26× | 0.19× | 0.24× | 0.17× | $-11,763 |
| 4001 NW 48 th Place, Gainesville, FL 32606 | $6,162 / 70.6% | 0.32× | 0.23× | 0.29× | 0.21× | $-10,908 |
| 8015 Galveston Ave, Jacksonville, FL 32211 | $6,138 / 68.2% | 0.40× | 0.30× | 0.37× | 0.28× | $-7,586 |
| 839 Angle St NE, Palm Bay, FL 32905 | $3,720 / 80.7% | 0.15× | 0.09× | 0.14× | 0.08× | $-15,024 |
| 481 Emerald Road, Ocala, FL 34472 | $4,308 / 76.3% | 0.21× | 0.14× | 0.19× | 0.13× | $-12,612 |
| 13160 SW 31st Avenue Road, Ocala, FL 34473 | $3,908 / 78.5% | 0.17× | 0.11× | 0.15× | 0.10× | $-14,428 |
| 130 SW 69th Street, Ocala, FL 34476 | $4,102 / 80.4% | 0.12× | 0.07× | 0.11× | 0.07× | $-21,748 |
Single-family rules, workforce submarkets and risk
The baseline legal-strategy matrix and official source links remain in the dataset as October 3 research leads; parcel-level clearance remains incomplete. Annual rental, house hack/room rental, ADU/conversion/subdivision, mid-term and STR require separate review of current zoning/use, occupancy and household/rooming definitions, licenses, rental duration, HOA/deeds, parking, bedroom/egress, fire safety, lender and insurer terms. Master lease/subletting also requires written owner approval. State ADU policy is not a parcel permit. No strategy receives a score or income premium.
Post-sale tax is reassessed under Florida law after a qualifying ownership change; seller homestead/caps are not carried into this model. The 2% proxy is not a tax quote. Non-ad-valorem charges, CDDs, sewer conversions and utility assessments need individual bills/estoppels. OIR historical homeowner averages do not price rental use, roof exclusions, wind deductibles, flood or liability. FEMA and evacuation designations are distinct; no parcel is called outside high-risk flood zones in this report. Obtain current map/elevation and insurer confirmation; review wind, storm surge, rainfall, heat and future insurance availability, plus sinkhole/septic risk inland.
Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL — WATCH. DeLand/Deltona; Stetson, AdventHealth Fish Memorial. These are location/demand leads, not commute or occupancy guarantees. Biggest acquisition risk: unverified 3–5BR yield after tax/insurance and capital work. New-home competition: 2641 single-unit permits Jan–Aug in metro; completions unknown. Current per-bedroom rents, entry $/sf, parcel legality, crime, attendance zones and school-program context remain unverified. Use official incident trends and school assignment/program sources neutrally; no protected-class proxies or steering. Purchase threshold remains property-specific, not metro-median-based.
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL — WATCH. Lakeland/Winter Haven; Lakeland Regional Health, Florida Southern, logistics. These are location/demand leads, not commute or occupancy guarantees. Biggest acquisition risk: unverified 3–5BR yield after tax/insurance and capital work. New-home competition: 4584 single-unit permits Jan–Aug in metro; completions unknown. Current per-bedroom rents, entry $/sf, parcel legality, crime, attendance zones and school-program context remain unverified. Use official incident trends and school assignment/program sources neutrally; no protected-class proxies or steering. Purchase threshold remains property-specific, not metro-median-based.
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL — WATCH. Orlando/Sanford; UCF, Lake Nona medical/employment nodes. These are location/demand leads, not commute or occupancy guarantees. Biggest acquisition risk: unverified 3–5BR yield after tax/insurance and capital work. New-home competition: 8997 single-unit permits Jan–Aug in metro; completions unknown. Current per-bedroom rents, entry $/sf, parcel legality, crime, attendance zones and school-program context remain unverified. Use official incident trends and school assignment/program sources neutrally; no protected-class proxies or steering. Purchase threshold remains property-specific, not metro-median-based.
Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL — WATCH. Palm Bay/Melbourne; aerospace, L3Harris, hospitals. These are location/demand leads, not commute or occupancy guarantees. Biggest acquisition risk: unverified 3–5BR yield after tax/insurance and capital work. New-home competition: 2483 single-unit permits Jan–Aug in metro; completions unknown. Current per-bedroom rents, entry $/sf, parcel legality, crime, attendance zones and school-program context remain unverified. Use official incident trends and school assignment/program sources neutrally; no protected-class proxies or steering. Purchase threshold remains property-specific, not metro-median-based.
Jacksonville, FL — WATCH. Northside/Westside/Arlington; UF Health, Mayo, UNF, port/logistics. These are location/demand leads, not commute or occupancy guarantees. Biggest acquisition risk: unverified 3–5BR yield after tax/insurance and capital work. New-home competition: 6625 single-unit permits Jan–Aug in metro; completions unknown. Current per-bedroom rents, entry $/sf, parcel legality, crime, attendance zones and school-program context remain unverified. Use official incident trends and school assignment/program sources neutrally; no protected-class proxies or steering. Purchase threshold remains property-specific, not metro-median-based.
Port St. Lucie, FL — WATCH. Port St. Lucie/Fort Pierce; Cleveland Clinic Tradition, IRSC. These are location/demand leads, not commute or occupancy guarantees. Biggest acquisition risk: unverified 3–5BR yield after tax/insurance and capital work. New-home competition: 3044 single-unit permits Jan–Aug in metro; completions unknown. Current per-bedroom rents, entry $/sf, parcel legality, crime, attendance zones and school-program context remain unverified. Use official incident trends and school assignment/program sources neutrally; no protected-class proxies or steering. Purchase threshold remains property-specific, not metro-median-based.
Panama City-Panama City Beach, FL — WATCH. Inland Bay County; Tyndall, Gulf Coast State College. These are location/demand leads, not commute or occupancy guarantees. Biggest acquisition risk: unverified 3–5BR yield after tax/insurance and capital work. New-home competition: 1335 single-unit permits Jan–Aug in metro; completions unknown. Current per-bedroom rents, entry $/sf, parcel legality, crime, attendance zones and school-program context remain unverified. Use official incident trends and school assignment/program sources neutrally; no protected-class proxies or steering. Purchase threshold remains property-specific, not metro-median-based.
Tallahassee, FL — WATCH. Tallahassee; state government, FSU/FAMU, TMH. These are location/demand leads, not commute or occupancy guarantees. Biggest acquisition risk: unverified 3–5BR yield after tax/insurance and capital work. New-home competition: 807 single-unit permits Jan–Aug in metro; completions unknown. Current per-bedroom rents, entry $/sf, parcel legality, crime, attendance zones and school-program context remain unverified. Use official incident trends and school assignment/program sources neutrally; no protected-class proxies or steering. Purchase threshold remains property-specific, not metro-median-based.
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL — WATCH. Inland Tampa/Pinellas; USF, TGH, diversified employment. These are location/demand leads, not commute or occupancy guarantees. Biggest acquisition risk: unverified 3–5BR yield after tax/insurance and capital work. New-home competition: 9484 single-unit permits Jan–Aug in metro; completions unknown. Current per-bedroom rents, entry $/sf, parcel legality, crime, attendance zones and school-program context remain unverified. Use official incident trends and school assignment/program sources neutrally; no protected-class proxies or steering. Purchase threshold remains property-specific, not metro-median-based.
Gainesville, FL — WATCH. Gainesville/Alachua; UF, UF Health. These are location/demand leads, not commute or occupancy guarantees. Biggest acquisition risk: unverified 3–5BR yield after tax/insurance and capital work. New-home competition: 839 single-unit permits Jan–Aug in metro; completions unknown. Current per-bedroom rents, entry $/sf, parcel legality, crime, attendance zones and school-program context remain unverified. Use official incident trends and school assignment/program sources neutrally; no protected-class proxies or steering. Purchase threshold remains property-specific, not metro-median-based.
Five improving and five deteriorating: what can be measured
No five-market change ranking since October 3 can be established from unchanged comparable monthly inputs. → Comparable listing and type-specific rent snapshots did not advance. The retained baseline acceleration lists below measure change in annual rent growth from August 2025 to August 2026, not October 3–15 movement or overall investment quality. Calling these the fastest improving investments would overstate the evidence.
SFR asking-rent growth acceleration — historical proxy
| Historical improving five | Aug 2026 YoY rent | Change vs prior-year growth (pp) |
|---|---|---|
| Naples-Marco Island, FL | 4.2% | ↑ +6.632 |
| Sebastian-Vero Beach-West Vero Corridor, FL | 5.5% | ↑ +4.545 |
| Wildwood-The Villages, FL | 4.2% | ↑ +3.154 |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | -0.0% | ↑ +2.441 |
| Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL | 3.2% | ↑ +2.371 |
| Historical deteriorating five | Aug 2026 YoY rent | Change vs prior-year growth (pp) |
|---|---|---|
| Tallahassee, FL | 1.9% | ↓ -1.646 |
| Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | 1.4% | ↓ -1.337 |
| Sebring, FL | 0.7% | ↓ -0.905 |
| Ocala, FL | 1.0% | ↓ -0.450 |
| Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL | 2.0% | ↓ -0.357 |
MFR asking-rent growth acceleration — historical proxy
| Historical improving five | Aug 2026 YoY rent | Change vs prior-year growth (pp) |
|---|---|---|
| Wildwood-The Villages, FL | 4.8% | ↑ +8.044 |
| Naples-Marco Island, FL | -0.2% | ↑ +4.072 |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | -1.7% | ↑ +3.373 |
| Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL | 1.1% | ↑ +3.112 |
| Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL | 2.7% | ↑ +2.890 |
| Historical deteriorating five | Aug 2026 YoY rent | Change vs prior-year growth (pp) |
|---|---|---|
| Sebastian-Vero Beach-West Vero Corridor, FL | -0.9% | ↓ -4.271 |
| Ocala, FL | -1.2% | ↓ -2.917 |
| Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | -1.2% | ↓ -2.384 |
| Homosassa Springs, FL | 1.5% | ↓ -2.077 |
| Gainesville, FL | 0.8% | ↓ -1.494 |
Comparison with the October 3 statewide baseline
→ Market stance and partial research ordering unchanged because the matched source snapshots are unchanged. ↑ Assumed investor interest rate +0.25 percentage point; modeled offers fall at identical rent/costs. ↓ Active triplex and SFR availability changed as identified above. ↓ Lauderhill asking-price snapshot $709,500 to $709,000 (provider cut-label inconsistency retained). ↑ Evidence calendar clarity: Census October 13 now names October 29 for ACS 2025 one-year release, replacing the earlier unspecified release timing. The prior Gulf model and statewide baseline are preserved separately; their differing rates, rankings and scopes are not pooled.
| Property (availability separate) | Baseline max 8.50% | Current max 8.75% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1811/1815 Whitner Street, Jacksonville, FL 32209 | $70,693 | $69,447 | ↓ $1,246 |
| 6600/6602 Pot O Gold Lane, Orlando, FL 32809 | $197,800 | $194,012 | ↓ $3,788 |
| 1010/1012 Gerald Avenue, Lehigh Acres, FL 33936 | $198,462 | $194,802 | ↓ $3,660 |
| 1255 NE 110th Terrace, Miami, FL 33161 | $285,717 | $280,447 | ↓ $5,269 |
| 3701 W Brainerd Street A & B, Pensacola, FL 32505 | $75,716 | $74,381 | ↓ $1,335 |
| 4265 SW 51st Street #1-3, Dania Beach, FL 33314 | $232,296 | $228,012 | ↓ $4,284 |
| 5200-5208 NW 16th Street, Lauderhill, FL 33313 | $251,282 | $246,648 | ↓ $4,634 |
| 519 W 23rd St, Jacksonville, FL 32206 | $133,265 | $130,915 | ↓ $2,349 |
| 902–904 E Lime St, Lakeland, FL 33801 | $213,132 | $209,202 | ↓ $3,931 |
| 997 Sutor Rd, Tallahassee, FL 32311 | $269,311 | $264,345 | ↓ $4,967 |
| 3333 Almeda St, Jacksonville, FL 32209 | $60,649 | $59,580 | ↓ $1,069 |
| 8625 Stockdale Ave, Pensacola, FL 32514 | $55,873 | $54,888 | ↓ $985 |
| 1195 Simpson St, Pensacola, FL 32526 | $60,212 | $59,150 | ↓ $1,062 |
| 3946 Magellan Trail, Tallahassee, FL 32303 | $81,388 | $79,887 | ↓ $1,501 |
| 4001 NW 48 th Place, Gainesville, FL 32606 | $51,817 | $50,646 | ↓ $1,172 |
| 8015 Galveston Ave, Jacksonville, FL 32211 | $81,388 | $79,887 | ↓ $1,501 |
| 839 Angle St NE, Palm Bay, FL 32905 | $71,131 | $69,877 | ↓ $1,254 |
Purchase thresholds, red flags and remaining work
Buy only after legal use/unit count and separate meters (for MF), ordinary annual leases and verified rents, insurance/flood quotes, post-sale taxes/assessments, roof/HVAC/plumbing/electrical, permit closure, immediate capex and operating reserves are documented. Underwrite the offer at ≥1.25× after-reserve DSCR, ≤85% break-even (prefer 80%) and ≥1.00× operating-stress coverage. If no credible stabilized rent or lawful use is established, there is no executable offer even if a formula produces a positive ceiling.
Red flags: advertised portfolio rent assigned to a single triplex; seller gross rent or pro-forma NOI treated as actual; assessed units mistaken for legal approval; unapproved bedrooms/conversions; nonconforming rebuilding rights; missing original CO; post-sale tax reset; homeowner quote used for landlord use; roof/permit discrepancy; utilities paid by owner; HOA/CDD unknown; short-sale fees; deferred maintenance; stale active pages; and assuming a spacious lot permits an extra dwelling. Do not contact tenants, brokers or sellers as part of this report.
This is scheduled report 1 of 12, with the October 3 baseline preserved. It is not the twelfth-report selection. Remaining comparable evidence is insufficient to name a final best market or candidate. Future reports must preserve the same nulls and vintages until verified, then record the new source and reason for any score or stance change.
Direct sources and cumulative history
RDC_M · Realtor.com Economic Research monthly inventory — 2026-09; published/modified 2026-09-30
RDC_S · Realtor.com statewide monthly inventory — 2026-09; published/modified 2026-09-30
ZORI_SFR · Zillow Observed Rent Index single-family residences — 2026-08-31; published/modified 2026-09-16
ZORI_MFR · Zillow Observed Rent Index 5+ unit rental buildings — 2026-08-31; published/modified 2026-09-16
ZHVI · Zillow Home Value Index — 2026-08-31; published/modified 2026-09-16
FR_MSA · Florida Realtors August MSA summary — 2026-08 and 2026 YTD; published/modified 2026-09-16
FR_SFR · Florida Realtors statewide SFR detail — 2026-08; published/modified 2026-09-16
BLS · BLS Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment — 2026-08 preliminary vs 2025-08; published/modified 2026-09-30
CENSUS_POP · Census Vintage 2025 CBSA population and components — July 1 2025 and revised 2024/2023; published/modified 2026-03-26
BPS_cbsa2608y.txt · Census Building Permits Survey Jan–Aug2026 YTD — 2026-01 to2026-08; published/modified 2026-09-24
HVS_RATE · Census annual housing vacancy Table6 — 2025 annual and 2024; published/modified 2026-03-24
ATTOM · ATTOM August2026 foreclosure market report — 2026-08; published/modified 2026-09-17
S11 · Florida Statutes 193.1554 (2026) — Publication/update date not established; accessed October 3, 2026
S14 · OIR July 2026 Property Insurance Stability Report — 2026-07-01
S17 · FEMA official flood-hazard data — Publication/update date not established; accessed October 3, 2026
S21 · Florida Fire Prevention Code — Publication/update date not established; accessed October 3, 2026
S25 · Jacksonville official STR responsibilities — Publication/update date not established; accessed October 3, 2026
S26 · Jacksonville ADU adopted legislation history — 2022
S58 · Marion current LDC entrypoint — Publication/update date not established; accessed October 3, 2026
S60 · Escambia written zoning verification — Publication/update date not established; accessed October 3, 2026
S62 · Polk current LDC chapter2 — Publication/update date not established; accessed October 3, 2026
HUD_FMR27 · HUD Fiscal Year 2027 Fair Market Rents final notice — Published September 1, 2026; effective October 1 subject to valid area reevaluation
HUD_SCHEDULE27 · HUD Fiscal Year 2027 Fair Market Rent schedule — Fiscal year 2027
OCT_PMMS · Freddie Mac weekly mortgage rates — October 8, 2026; 7.40% 30-year
OCT_ACS · Census ACS 2025 release announcement — October 13, 2026: October 29 release planned
OCT_FR_CAL · Florida Realtors release calendar — September/Q3 report scheduled October 16, 2026
OCT_ZILLOW · Zillow September national market report — September 2026; published October 6
The full source ledger, original candidate evidence, legal-strategy matrix, confidence caveats and cumulative history are retained in the public JSON. Original baseline: https://www.thechrishanson.com/data/florida-residential-investment-watch-2026-10-03-baseline-data.json . Current report and data: https://www.thechrishanson.com/research/florida-residential-investment-watch-october-15-2026 and https://www.thechrishanson.com/research/data .
Coverage disclosure: this is a fact-checked, coverage-limited monthly research update. It does not fulfill the requested complete legal listing census, full investment rankings, verified strategy rankings, current effective-rent/pipeline coverage or best-property awards. Those outputs are withheld because source access and evidence are insufficient, not because unavailable means zero.