Deep tenant and employment base; triplex and fourplex asking prices still need discounts.
The Real Estate Experiment / Florida research data
Florida residential-investment research data.
I’ll update this page as I verify more of Florida. Current statewide evidence and prior Gulf-only screens are labeled separately so an older model is never mistaken for today’s statewide conclusion.
Latest statewide / October 15, 2026 / Report 1 of 12
Higher debt costs. Fewer available leads.
Coverage-limited evidence across 22 metros. September listing and August rent snapshots remain unchanged; the assumed investor rate is now 8.75%. No complete investment ranking or best-property award is supported. Five active SFR screens fail the base DSCR hurdle at asking.
Read latest statewide report · Download current JSON · Download full public dataset · Download statewide history
| Current MSA | Stance | Sept residential listings | Sept DOM | Aug SFR ZORI / month | Versus Oct 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL | WATCH | 41277 | 85 | $3,436 | → Same source vintages |
| Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL | WATCH | 17965 | 76 | $2,410 | → Same source vintages |
| Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL | WATCH | 13869 | 77 | $2,452 | → Same source vintages |
| Jacksonville, FL | WATCH | 7799 | 66 | $2,075 | → Same source vintages |
| North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota, FL | WATCH | 6905 | 88 | $2,541 | → Same source vintages |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL | WATCH | 9173 | 91 | $2,154 | → Same source vintages |
| Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL | WATCH | 4801 | 80 | $2,099 | → Same source vintages |
| Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL | WATCH | 5472 | 78 | $2,147 | → Same source vintages |
| Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL | WATCH | 3554 | 68 | $2,255 | → Same source vintages |
| Port St. Lucie, FL | WATCH | 3905 | 80 | $2,681 | → Same source vintages |
| Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL | WATCH | 2937 | 72 | $1,948 | → Same source vintages |
| Ocala, FL | WATCH | 3468 | 77 | $1,770 | → Same source vintages |
| Naples-Marco Island, FL | WATCH | 4523 | 101 | $3,465 | → Same source vintages |
| Tallahassee, FL | WATCH | 1384 | 60 | $1,650 | → Same source vintages |
| Gainesville, FL | WATCH | 1423 | 82 | $2,001 | → Same source vintages |
| Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL | WATCH | 4194 | 98 | $2,182 | → Same source vintages |
| Panama City-Panama City Beach, FL | WATCH | 2933 | 101 | $2,110 | → Same source vintages |
| Punta Gorda, FL | WATCH | 2655 | 87 | $2,087 | → Same source vintages |
| Sebastian-Vero Beach-West Vero Corridor, FL | WATCH | 1315 | 87 | $2,330 | → Same source vintages |
| Homosassa Springs, FL | WATCH | 1529 | 87 | $1,774 | → Same source vintages |
| Wildwood-The Villages, FL | WATCH | 593 | 59 | $1,962 | → Same source vintages |
| Sebring, FL | WATCH | 917 | 80 | $1,616 | → Same source vintages |
Residential inventory and provider rent indexes are not legal 2–4-unit counts or 3–5BR subject rents. Underwriting, source links, missing values and candidate changes are in the report and dataset. The baseline and prior Gulf evidence below retain their original vintages.
Statewide baseline / October 3, 2026
Florida Residential Investment Watch
Public evidence covering all 22 current Florida metro areas. This is a coverage-limited research baseline: it does not claim a complete 100-point ranking, a cleared purchase, or a best-property award.
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Prior Gulf-only screen / Dataset 002
What the October 1 Gulf screen supported.
Historical context only. The 7.75% financing assumption, “best” screen labels, and other values below belong to the prior 14-market Gulf model—not the October 3 statewide baseline or current statewide conclusions. Download the preserved Gulf CSV
| Metric | Market | Value | Period | Source | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Investor debt assumption | All markets | 7.75% | Oct. 2026 model | Freddie Mac + spread | Modeled |
| Preferred base DSCR | All acquisitions | ≥1.35× | Oct. 2026 model | Stress-tested target | Modeled |
| Duplex/triplex price ceiling | All markets | 6.98× gross | Oct. 2026 model | 40% expense ratio | Derived |
| Fourplex price ceiling | All markets | 6.20× gross | Oct. 2026 model | 45% expense ratio | Derived |
| Best triplex screen | Inland Fort Myers | $414k max | Oct. 1, 2026 | Carrier Rd model | Modeled |
| Best fourplex screen | Cape Coral | $327k max | Oct. 1, 2026 | Victoria Dr model | Modeled |
| Best conventional SFR screen | New Port Richey | $177k ask | Oct. 1, 2026 | White Ash Dr model | Modeled |
| Florida SFR inventory | Florida | 4.3 months | Aug. 2026 | Florida Realtors | Observed |
| 30-year mortgage benchmark | United States | 7.03% | Sep. 24, 2026 | Freddie Mac reporting | Observed |
Prior Gulf-only 14-market screen / Dataset 002
Historical Gulf scores, preserved for comparison.
These October 1 scores cover New Port Richey through Naples only. They are not a statewide ranking and do not supersede the coverage-limited October 3 statewide baseline.
Best lower-basis duplex and SFR screens near Tampa demand; flood and older systems matter.
Best current triplex depth and attainable basis; leases and soft rents must be verified.
Broad fourplex inventory and seller dispersion; wind, flood, roof, and legal-unit risk decide the deal.
Strong Pinellas tenant depth with older-building and insurance exposure.
Potential rent-to-price fit, but rents and concessions have softened.
Tenant diversity and resale liquidity; acquisition basis remains expensive.
Meaningful buyer leverage with thinner employment and insurance resilience.
Low basis is offset by rental supply and falling rents.
Stable SFR tenant demand; legal three- and four-unit inventory is thin.
Medical and mid-term demand cannot excuse a weak annual-rental base case.
Buy only at a deep discount given market depth and storm concentration.
Durable rent demand, but median basis and insurance overwhelm conventional yield.
Strong demand profile with weak ordinary long-term yield at prevailing basis.
Diligence gate
The model is a screen—not permission to skip the hard checks.
Every active candidate remains provisional until the address-level evidence clears these gates.
Legal unit count and zoning
Match the listing to county records, permits, zoning, and certificates of occupancy.
Rent roll and leases
Verify every lease, deposit, delinquency, concession, estoppel, and utility obligation.
Insurance and flood quote
Use the actual roof, wind mitigation, four-point inspection, elevation, and FEMA zone.
Taxes after purchase
Reset taxes from the likely acquisition price rather than the seller’s current bill.
Building systems and open permits
Roof, HVAC, electrical panels, plumbing, sewer or septic, moisture, and foundation.
Strategy legality
Room rental, ADU, subdivision, furnished, and short-term use need written address-level clearance.
Sources
Check the work.
Prior Gulf-only Dataset 002 / October 1, 2026
Gulf Coast Residential Investment Watch
Historical 14-market Gulf screen with separate duplex, triplex, fourplex, and single-family models—preserved as prior research, not a current statewide conclusion.